Louis-Vincent Gave: Why CHINA WON the trade WAR

54 snips

Feb 15, 2026

Louis-Vincent Gave, Hong Kong–based macro investor and CEO of GaveCal, shares bold takes on global reflation, commodity breakouts, and why US tech pressure pushed China to industrial upgrade. He argues China leapfrogged manufacturing, explains RMB and Hong Kong dollar roles, and lays out why Chinese equities look more attractive amid energy-driven macro risks.

Ask episode

AI Snips

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

INSIGHT

How The Tech War Accelerated China's Leap

The 2018 U.S. semiconductor restrictions forced China to mobilize savings into industry and de‑Westernize supply chains.
That industrial push produced technological leapfrogging across autos, batteries, turbines and robotics.

INSIGHT

China Came Out Ahead On Trade

China’s trade surplus multiplied since 2018, making the trade‑war outcome favourable to China.
Louis‑Vincent calls this a strategic win where China ‘won the trade war.’

INSIGHT

RMB Internationalization Is Gradual

Renminbi internationalization is a long, incremental policy starting around 2011 rather than a sudden shift.
China builds stronger bond markets first to support RMB usage in trade and reserves.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Get the app

Louis-Vincent Gave argues we’re in a synchronized global reflation. Fiscal deficits are expanding, central banks are accommodating, yield curves are steepening, and commodities are breaking out. Financials, metals, emerging markets and Latin American debt are responding accordingly. The key risk? Not the Federal Reserve tightening—but energy prices or a bond market revolt. On China, he makes a blunt case: the US tech war forced Beijing to de-risk and upgrade. The result is a manufacturing leapfrog, a structural equity bull market, and a gradual push toward renminbi internationalization. He explains why the Hong Kong dollar peg still holds, why RMB bonds outperformed for a decade, and why he’s now backing Chinese equities over bonds. We also cover gold vs US Treasuries, central bank buying, the shift in FX reserves, and why energy—not precious metals—may be the real macro pivot from here. Serious macro positioning for a changing monetary order.
📲 Download the GoldRepublic app:

- Google Play: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.goldrepublic⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

- Apple Store: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://apps.apple.com/nl/app/goldrepublic/id475643876⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

🟠 Buy and store physical allocated gold, silver and platinum.

👉 Open an account: ⁠https://bit.ly/38stf7p ⁠

⚠️ DISCLAIMER ⚠️

The views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of any entities they represent.

The information provided in this video statement is not an offer, investment advice, or financial service. It is also not intended to encourage you to buy or sell a product or to purchase a service from GoldRepublic, nor as a basis for an investment decision. A decision to invest in a GoldRepublic product can and may only be based on the information contained in a final prospectus and any Key Investor Information and other information about the product concerned (such as annual or semi-annual results). This information is available on the website (www.goldrepublic.com). If necessary, call in an advisor.