Daniel Davis Deep Dive "Elite" Thinking on Iran War Could Cripple America /Lt Col Daniel Davis
Mar 19, 2026
A contrarian look at how elite assumptions and planning could fail in a conflict with Iran. Questions about reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the feasibility of 'softening' defenses are debated. The podcast explores missile reach across the Gulf, tanker vulnerability, and the logistics of seizing islands. It also flags moral and escalation risks tied to calls for assassination campaigns.
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Elite Competence Should Not Be Assumed
- Daniel Davis argues the assumption that wartime leaders are the best-of-the-best is false and dangerously deceptive.
- He cites cancellations and ad hoc fixes around planned strikes in January/February as evidence elite decision-making is disorderly and unprepared.
Kellogg Says Softening Targets Could Reopen Strait
- General Keith Kellogg claims shipping can be reopened by 'softening' shore-to-ship missile batteries and escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Kellogg compares it to past operations like Ernest Will and recommends drills, aircraft cover, and escorts as a ‘confidence’ measure.
Do Not Rely On Small Seizures To Secure Shipping
- Avoid treating limited raids or island seizures as sufficient to secure the Strait because sustainment and protection problems persist.
- Davis details logistics: 791-mile coastline, helicopter vulnerability, resupply, medevac, and constant harassment risks.