A Look Back at 2025's Stock Market Predictions | The Informed Investor 25

Episode 25: At the end of every calendar year, stock market pundits publish predictions for the coming 12 months. Should you pay attention to these forecasts?

A look back at predictions for 2025 may help you decide.

Some market pros argued that international stocks would struggle due to tensions around global trade and tariff policies. But that's not what happened.

From January through the end of November, non-US stocks were performing far better than US stocks based on index returns.

Similarly, many countries pegged as potential victims in a trade war—like Canada and Mexico—were outgaining the US market through the end of November.

What about specific predictions for the US market—did they prove prescient in 2025? Not exactly. Ditto for the four years leading up to 2025.

Many predictions weren't close, as realized gains mostly ran far ahead of the forecasts.

At least one category did see accurate predictions: gold. Soothsayers in late 2024 went all in on a gold rally—and the coveted metal soared past $4,000 through November after starting the year just above $2,600.

But similar predictions for a bitcoin boom didn't work out; the widely followed cryptocurrency was hit with big losses late in the year.

In Episode 25 of the "The Informed Investor" podcast, Dimensional's Mark Gochnour, Head of Global Client Services, Wes Crill, PhD, Senior Client Solutions Director, and Jake DeKinder, Head of Client Communications, conduct an investment autopsy on 2025 predictions and offer some insights on why accurate forecasts were hard to come by.

LINKS FROM TODAY'S EPISODE:

"The Informed Investor" on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLCyJr6FFig-h1mA7rVP7Mbk0irFw2wA90

Dimensional Fund Advisors Shorts on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@dimensionalfundadvisors/shorts

Mark Gochnour on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/mark-gochnour-9a23598a/

Wes Crill on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/wes-crill-77a49417/

Jake DeKinder on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/jake-dekinder-cfa-4105b98/

Learn more at https://www.dimensional.com/