Talking Feds How Trump Blew Up the World Order
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Mar 26, 2026 
Robert Kagan, historian and foreign policy expert at Brookings and The Atlantic, explains how recent U.S. actions shattered the post‑World War II grand bargain. He traces why allies trusted America, how their rearmament and regional shifts followed, and whether the old order can be rebuilt or must be replaced.
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End Of The Grand Bargain
- The postwar Grand Bargain relied on the US providing security while allies gave up traditional geopolitical ambitions.
- Robert Kagan argues Trump ended that bargain by withdrawing guarantees and using US power to extract economic gains, undermining long-term trust.
Allies Will Rearm If US Pulls Back
- If the US stops guaranteeing allied security, major powers like Germany and Japan will rearm and resume normal great-power competition.
- Kagan ties this to the Iran war showing NATO and Asian allies unwilling to assume US risks or rely on US forces shifted elsewhere.
Middle East Focus Undermines Europe And Asia
- Trump's Iran-first focus shifted US forces and attention away from Europe and East Asia, weakening deterrence in both theaters.
- Kagan notes patriot interceptors used up for Gulf defense and redeployment of Pacific forces critical to Taiwan contingencies.
