Insightful Investor

#86 - Jason Thomas: Inflation, AI Economics, Tariffs, Private Markets

Sep 2, 2025
In this discussion, Jason Thomas, Head of Global Research and Investment Strategy at Carlyle, shares insights on the new regime of persistent inflation and its implications for portfolio diversification. He highlights the dynamic economic impact of AI, noting its substantial contribution to GDP growth. Jason delves into the evolving roles of private markets and credit, advocating for a focus on inflation-hedged assets like infrastructure. He also examines the effects of tariffs, market concentration risks, and the importance of adapting investment strategies amidst changing economic landscapes.
Ask episode
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
INSIGHT

AI Is Reversing Low-CapEx Corporate Trend

  • AI is reversing a long corporate trend of low capex and high cash generation by driving massive infrastructure spending.
  • Top AI users now consume a far larger share of cash flow for CapEx, shifting savings dynamics in the economy.
INSIGHT

AI CapEx Is A Current GDP Driver

  • AI capex already contributed materially to near-term GDP growth, not just future productivity gains.
  • The present concentrated capex boom is comparable to historic infrastructure waves like electrification and telecom.
INSIGHT

Tariffs Work Like A Backdoor VAT

  • Current U.S. tariffs function like a backdoor value-added tax and generate substantial revenue without relocating production.
  • Tariff levels seem calibrated to maximize revenue rather than to reshoring manufacturing.
Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode
Get the app