The Fourcast

Starmer Xi meeting: is Trump making China great again?

Jan 29, 2026
Nathalie Tocci, European policy expert focused on Europe-China ties. Amitav Acharya, scholar of Asian diplomacy and global governance. Robert Kagan, American foreign‑policy commentator on great‑power politics. They discuss Starmer’s Beijing visit and whether Western allies are shifting away from the US, Trump’s impact on China’s opportunities, and what a more multipolar world means for Europe’s choices and defence.
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INSIGHT

China Likes Economics, Not Political Order

  • China benefits economically from the existing order but pursues its own agenda; Russia differs in its aims.
  • Acharya stresses China likes economic globalization while opposing aspects of the political order.
ADVICE

Use Targeted Leverage Against Coercion

  • Play the economic cards Europe has by standing firm on red lines to force market reactions.
  • Nathalie Tocci urges using targeted leverage to make coercive U.S. moves politically costly.
INSIGHT

Power Plays Hollow Without Alliances

  • Trump's approach centers on raw power and domestic political messaging rather than sustained alliance management.
  • Robert Kagan warns this will weaken U.S. influence as allies rebalance away from Washington.
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