From the New World Roko Mijic: Defects, Defection, and the Future of Governance
Feb 13, 2023
Roko Mijic, Rationalist and inventor of 'Roko's Basilisk,' discusses rationality, signaling, lockdowns, selection effects, feminism, housing, crypto, and elite theory. The podcast delves into the conflict between rationalists and Wokism, exploring truth-seeking movements, societal challenges, governance systems, DAOs, Urbit, cryptocurrency, and future implications on governance and AI development.
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Lockdowns Ignored Intervention Uncertainty
- Lockdowns had asymmetric unknowns: interventions carried large societal costs often underestimated versus virus risk for many groups.
- Early targeted steps like flight bans and challenge trials could have yielded critical information at low cost.
Personal Analysis: Lockdowns Cost More Life-Years
- Roko analyzed COVID quantitatively in late 2020 and concluded lockdowns would cost more person-years than the virus.
- He argued early flight bans and vaccine challenge trials were practical and underused measures.
Failure To Update Institutional Trust
- Rationalists failed to update trust in legacy institutions despite correlated, repeated institutional errors during COVID.
- That refusal to downgrade institutional credibility is the movement's biggest current frustration.