Odd Lots This Is How Big Money Is Trading the War in Iran
122 snips
Mar 26, 2026 
Ozan Tarman, Deutsche Bank’s vice chair of global macro, joins for a look at how major investors are navigating the Iran war. He talks about headline whiplash, why equities could squeeze higher, and why gold became a source of liquidation. They also dig into Europe’s energy vulnerability, the gap between paper and physical oil, propaganda-fueled market noise, and private credit risks spilling outward.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Why The Pain Trade Is Stocks Up And Oil Down
- Ozan Tarman says the current pain trade is higher equities and lower oil, because many investors were positioned the other way and are now wounded.
- He thinks traders expected a Trump-style mission accomplished moment, but the fat-tail risk remains huge if Iran rejects the script.
How Iran Shattered The Bond Is The New Gold Trade
- Before the Iran attack, investors had pivoted hard toward AI-driven slowdown fears, lower yields, and more rate cuts, with bonds treated like the new safe haven.
- The war abruptly forced liquidation of winners like gold and emerging markets, while rate markets swung from cuts toward multiple hikes.
What A Pain Trade Really Means In Macro Markets
- Ozan Tarman defines a pain trade as a crowded consensus unwinding violently, where positioning matters almost as much as fundamentals.
- He points to the dollar as an underappreciated example because a move back toward 110 to 111 would hit emerging markets and reverse the soft-dollar consensus.