The Jacob Shapiro Podcast Who's Running Tehran?
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Mar 6, 2026 Hamidreza Azizi, an Iran analyst providing on-the-ground perspectives, breaks down Tehran's current power centers. He outlines Iran's phased strategy against radars and energy infrastructure. He explains China and Russia’s quiet support, proxy roles in the region, and why long-term optimism for Iran’s future is limited.
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Israel's Campaign Seeks To Cripple Iran's External Reach
- Israel appears to pursue an outcome that weakens Iran's ability to govern externally, possibly aiming for regime change or state collapse.
- Targeting governmental buildings and deep underground missile stockpiles signals intent to degrade governance and external projection.
Iran Cannot Strike The U.S. Homeland With Ballistic Missiles
- Iran lacks intercontinental missiles and cannot strike the U.S. homeland; their missile reach tops out around eastern Europe and nearby bases.
- Asymmetric options are limited to intelligence-led sabotage or attacks by surrogate groups, not direct ballistic strikes on America.
Iranian Cyber Threat Is Real But Limited
- Iran's cyber capabilities exist but are far weaker than U.S. cyber power and focused on Israel and dissident networks.
- Major disruptive nationwide cyberattacks in the United States are unlikely from Iran despite cooperation with Russia and China.