The Intelligence from The Economist From bad to awful: Trump’s four options in Iran
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Mar 23, 2026 
Gregg Carlstrom, The Economist’s Middle East correspondent, explains four fraught paths for US policy in the Iran war. Alizée Jean-Baptiste, Asia podcasts reporter, digs into Thailand’s monk scandals and why reform is so tricky. They also touch on gene-editing in fruit and how CRISPR could change what we eat.
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Why Declaring Victory Would Risk Strategic Failure
- Leaving prematurely risks leaving Iran with over 400kg of highly enriched uranium and leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.
- Carlstrom warns Gulf states would see abandonment as a worst-case scenario after weeks of conflict.
Attrition May Reduce Attacks But Not End The Threat
- Continuing attrition aims to reduce daily Iranian launches from thousands to under a hundred.
- Carlstrom notes hawks argue sustained strikes and reinforcements might further depress attacks, but closure of Hormuz could persist despite attrition.
Escalation Risks A Regional Doomsday Scenario
- Escalation is risky and could provoke reciprocal strikes on Gulf infrastructure, creating a 'doomsday' scenario for regional utilities.
- Carlstrom highlights US options like striking power plants or seizing Kharg Island but warns Iran vowed to retaliate against Gulf facilities.