FEAR & GREED | Business News Rates rise in split decision; ACCC warns patrol stations; Australia-EU free trade deal
Mar 17, 2026
A close Reserve Bank split over a 25bp rate rise and what it means for mortgages and future moves. A regulator probes petrol pricing amid suspected panic buying. Progress toward an Australia-EU free trade deal and its stakes for cars and farm exports. A new review questions medicinal cannabis benefits. Asian nations impose drastic fuel-saving measures.
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Split Vote Reveals Rate Path Uncertainty
- The Reserve Bank's 25bp hike to a 4.1% cash rate was a narrowly split decision, showing material uncertainty among policymakers.
- Four of nine board members preferred no change, and the board debated a hawkish hold versus immediate tightening driven by capacity constraints and Middle East risks.
Watch Data Not Dates For The Next Hike
- Expect future RBA moves to be data dependent and less pre-committed after the close 5-4 vote.
- Monitor incoming labour, investment and inflation data because those were the factors that swung the decision.
Why Mortgage Rates Are Much Higher Than The Cash Rate
- The cash rate is a floor set on overnight bank-to-bank lending, not the direct price consumers pay for mortgages.
- Mortgage rates sit ~200bps above the cash rate because of funding costs, deposit rates, risk premiums and regulatory requirements.