Milk Road Macro The #1 Real-Time Indicator That Says the Economy Is About to Boom w/ Craig Fuller
Mar 26, 2026
Craig Fuller, founder and CEO of FreightWaves and a trucking data expert, explains why real-time freight signals are turning bullish. He talks about rising freight volumes, tightening trucking capacity, the truckload rejection index, flatbed demand as an industrial comeback signal, and how reshoring and regulatory shifts could spark a prolonged trucking boom.
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Why Higher Fuel Often Helps Big Truckers
- Diesel spikes are largely muted for large carriers because about 80% of fuel costs are passed to shippers via fuel surcharges.
- Craig Fuller explains FedEx and big carriers often profit when fuel rises because their pricing structure transfers the cost to customers.
Tender Rejections Predict Trucking Rate Moves
- The SONAR tender rejection index shows how often carriers refuse offered loads, signaling supply tightness and pricing power.
- Fuller notes rejections rose from ~4% a year ago to ~14% today, implying inevitable rate increases.
Flatbed Boom Is An Industrial Signal
- A surge in flatbed demand is signaling an industrial renaissance, not housing, because flatbed loads are heavy materials like steel and aluminum.
- Fuller points to Midwest and Rust Belt flows as evidence of renewed manufacturing and plant construction.