Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 | Episode 2: Regional Perspectives

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Jan 15, 2026

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In this engaging discussion, David Mericle, Chief U.S. economist, reveals how easing tariffs and recent fiscal changes might boost U.S. growth in 2026. Andrew Tilton, Chief Asia-Pacific economist, examines China’s property woes while highlighting manufacturing strengths that keep exports competitive. Jari Stehn, Chief European economist, contrasts Europe’s vulnerabilities with cyclical support, forecasting 1.3% growth. Tune in for insights into monetary policy divergences and the implications for emerging markets!

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ADVICE

Monitor The Labor Market Closely

Watch U.S. labor market indicators closely, especially hiring and wage trends.
If labor softens further, expect earlier and larger Fed rate cuts than currently forecast.

INSIGHT

Property Sector Still A Major Drag

Andrew Tilton estimates China's property downturn shaved about two percentage points off 2025 GDP.
He expects that drag to fall to roughly 1.5 points in 2026 but remain material through 2027.

INSIGHT

Housing Losses Squeeze Chinese Consumption

Housing wealth collapse and weak hiring have materially weakened Chinese consumer demand.
High household saving exists, but limited social safety nets keep households cautious despite large deposits.

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In the second episode of the Goldman Sachs Exchanges Outlook 2026 series, Goldman Sachs Research’s David Mericle, Andrew Tilton, and Jari Stehn discuss the trends shaping economies in the US, Asia, and Europe in 2026.

This episode was recorded on January 7 and 8, 2026.

Learn more about Goldman Sachs’ outlooks for the year ahead.

The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs.

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