LessWrong (30+ Karma) “Intention vs. Trying: Separate Prediction from Goal-Seeking” by plex
Mar 20, 2026
They contrast clean, unbiased prediction of futures with pressure-filled goal-pursuit and why mixing them breaks both. Minds are described as parts that model preferred states and feed imagined outcomes into choices. The talk covers how pressuring future rollouts leads to micromanagement, how to enable honest world-modeling, therapeutic integration, and healthier collaboration practices.
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Goal Pressure Undermines Truth Seeking
- Mixing goal-directedness into truth-seeking undermines both accurate prediction and effective goal pursuit.
- The author reports repeated personal and observed cases, so the claim is empirical rather than formal.
Intention As Unbiased Simulation
- Minds run subprograms that model goal states and simulate futures for action selection.
- Intention means unbiased simulation plus acting only at the current timestep, trusting future selves to decide with better info.
Trying Distorts Prediction
- Trying injects goal-pressure into model rollouts, shaping which futures you consider and pushing outcomes forward.
- Forms include clinging (refusing to model bad futures) and instrumentalizing (forcing others into roles to achieve outcomes).