Doom Debates! Noah Smith vs. Liron Shapira — Will AI spare our lives AND our jobs?
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Jan 5, 2026 
Noah Smith, an economist and popular Substack writer, shares his optimistic vision of AI's future. He believes rather than causing extinction, AI will generate plentiful high-paying jobs. The discussion explores the probabilities of AI-induced catastrophe versus transformation. Noah argues AI could enable existing threats rather than create new ones. They also debate the potential for harmful AI persuasion, the risk of a dominant AI, and how to preserve human livelihoods amidst evolving technology. Optimism shines through as he advocates for resource policies to benefit humanity.
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Persuasion Needs Material Teeth
- Persuasion is a powerful AI vector, but Noah stresses physical teeth (weapons, labs, robots) remain necessary.
- He treats persuasion as important but not sufficient for full extinction without material capabilities.
Design And Push For Good AI Futures
- Noah urges thinking more about positive AI futures and designing policies to steer toward them.
- He recommends imagining good stable equilibria and pushing society toward those outcomes.
Multiple AIs Reduce Single-Breakout Risk
- Noah concedes a single breakout AI with a large capability lead is dangerous, but sees it as an edge case.
- He emphasizes competition among multiple AIs as a key defense mechanism.
