The Atlantic Out Loud Every Nation for Itself
Jan 22, 2026
Explore the implications of Trump's vision for a 19th-century international order. Robert Kagan outlines how this shift could lead to greater global instability and violence. He discusses the origins of the post-World War II order and how abandonment of allies may force nations like Germany and Japan to rearm. The return of contested spheres of interest threatens conflict, while China's and Russia's ambitions complicate stability. Ultimately, Kagan warns that America's declining alliances and legitimacy could turn it into a global pariah.
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The Grand Bargain That Produced Stability
- The post‑1945 American order was unprecedented: the U.S. provided global security and allies accepted diminished sovereignty.
- That bargain created peace, open trade, and prosperity across Europe and East Asia.
19th-Century Multipolarity Was Violent
- Kagan shows 19th‑century multipolarity was violent and frequent war was common among great powers.
- Recreating that system risks major wars, redrawn borders, and mass displacement at least once a decade.
Policy Moves That Shatter Allied Trust
- Kagan documents concrete Trump policies that dismantle the grand bargain: urging allies to self‑defend, imposing tariffs, and threatening allied territory.
- These actions erode trust and push allies toward rearmament or strategic independence.