Effective Altruism: Ten Global Problems – 80,000 Hours (October 2021) One: Toby Ord on existential risks
03:13:38
Shared Risk Mechanism
- Several existential risks, like supervolcanoes, asteroids, and nuclear war, share a common mechanism.
- Atmospheric disruption leading to global cooling and reduced crop growth is a major vulnerability.
Supervolcano Terminology
- Toby Ord finds the name "supervolcano" faintly ridiculous.
- This highlights how terminology can influence our perception of risk.
Natural vs. Anthropogenic Risks
- Humanity's survival for two thousand centuries suggests natural extinction risks are low.
- This "natural risk argument" doesn't apply to anthropogenic risks, making them potentially more dangerous.
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Introduction
00:00 • 3min
The Precipice, Existential Risk in the Future of Humanity
03:00 • 3min
Are There Existential Risks?
06:20 • 5min
The Time of No Return
11:41 • 2min
Are We Going to Follow Business as Usual?
13:23 • 3min
The Risks of Asteroids and Comets
16:21 • 5min
Asteroids and Comets
21:11 • 3min
The Risk of Super Volcanic Eruptions
23:46 • 4min
Is the Super Volcano Really a Disaster?
27:47 • 2min
Is There a Super Volcano?
29:52 • 5min
Gameray Burst
34:43 • 2min
What Is the Probability of the Natural Risks?
36:14 • 2min
Are We More Robust Than We Used to Be?
37:47 • 3min
How Long We've Been Around For?
41:09 • 2min
Is There a Relationship Between the Life Span of a Species and the Natural Extinct Rate?
43:08 • 2min
Why Aren't Natural and Anthropic Risks High?
44:44 • 3min
Can We Survive the Natural Risks?
47:36 • 5min
Is the Weather Going Up and Down?
52:53 • 1min
Is the Palier Climate Data Really Reliable?
54:08 • 5min
Are We Going to Keep Emissions of Carbon in the Atmosphere?
58:59 • 4min
Climate Change
01:03:14 • 2min
Is There a Prior Probability?
01:05:23 • 4min
Risk Factors in Climate Change
01:09:31 • 5min
Is Climate Change a Risk Factor?
01:14:49 • 2min
Is There a Risk of Pandemics?
01:16:42 • 2min
Is Climate Change a Risk Factor?
01:19:04 • 5min
Climate Change
01:23:39 • 4min
The Risks of Natural Pandemics
01:28:00 • 3min
Do You Think the BioWarfare Convention Helps?
01:31:07 • 6min
Nuclear Winter Could Cause Human Extinction
01:36:50 • 2min
Is There a Future Arms Race?
01:38:25 • 4min
Is the Natural Extinction Rate a Good Source of Evidence?
01:42:32 • 3min
The Existential Catastrophe
01:45:46 • 2min
The Biggest Risk From Artificial Intelligence
01:47:59 • 5min
Is There a 20 % Chance That This Will All Go Wrong?
01:52:44 • 5min
Is There a Pattern With Extinction Risks?
01:57:17 • 2min
How to Deal With Big Uncertainty?
01:58:57 • 5min
What Are You Most Uncertain About?
02:03:45 • 3min
The Risk of Extinction This Century Is Low or High?
02:07:05 • 4min
Is There a Higher Value of Existential Risk?
02:11:21 • 2min
The Risk of an Existential Risk Within the Next Century
02:13:51 • 5min
Is It a Good Idea to Use a Prior?
02:18:32 • 2min
When Will an Event First Happen Over a Long Period?
02:20:40 • 3min
Are We Going to Enter a Phase of Existential Security?
02:23:55 • 4min
The Most Influential Time in History Has Already Passed
02:27:46 • 2min
The Potential of Humanity
02:29:55 • 4min
Are We Going to Reach a State of Existential Security?
02:34:14 • 3min
Climate Change and Animal Welfare Are Getting Worse
02:37:41 • 3min
Is Existential Risk Going Down in the Near Future?
02:40:17 • 2min
Is There a Good Long Termist Approach to Existential Risk?
02:42:02 • 1min
How the Future Could Go
02:43:30 • 5min
Is the Long Reflection a Political Dialogue?
02:48:31 • 4min
Is There an Intractable Disagreement?
02:52:02 • 3min
The Existential Catastrophe
02:54:51 • 5min
Should We Talk About Policy Recommendations?
02:59:28 • 4min
Is There a Way to Not Mess Up?
03:03:28 • 4min
The Commission for Future Generations
03:07:36 • 5min
A New Interview in a Two Years
03:12:10 • 1min
In 2020, Oxford academic and 80,000 Hours trustee Dr Toby Ord released his book The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It's about how our long-term future could be better than almost anyone believes, but also how humanity's recklessness is putting that future at grave risk — in Toby's reckoning, a 1 in 6 chance of being extinguished this century.
Toby is a famously good explainer of complex issues — a bit of a modern Carl Sagan character — so we thought this would be a perfect introduction to the problem of existential risks.
Full transcript, related links, and summary of this interviewThis episode first broadcast on the regular 80,000 Hours Podcast feed on March 7, 2020. Some related episodes include:
• #81 – Ben Garfinkel on scrutinising classic AI risk arguments
• #70 – Dr Cassidy Nelson on the twelve best ways to stop the next pandemic (and limit COVID-19)
• #43 – Daniel Ellsberg on the creation of nuclear doomsday machines, the institutional insanity that maintains them, & how they could be dismantled
Series produced by Keiran Harris.