Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart What If Earnings Guidance Disappoints? How Low Could Stocks Fall? | Lance Roberts
4 snips
Jan 24, 2026 
Lance Roberts, portfolio manager known for macro and valuation-focused analysis, weighs in on market risks and extreme valuations. He discusses the consequences if corporate earnings guidance disappoints and how far stocks might fall. They also cover silver’s surge above $100, the role of ETFs and margin debt in fueling speculation, and opportunities in commodities and energy stocks.
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Adam's Silver Laser-Eye Story
- Adam shared that he added silver laser-eye profile photos after silver broke out above $35 and joked about taking a portion of gains.
- He also said he's hedging and taking profits in paper and physical exposures while keeping some long-term ounces.
Recent Returns Show Structural Stretch
- Structural returns have been unusually high, leaving market returns 18% above the three-year moving average.
- That structural deviation makes continued outsized returns harder to sustain going forward.
High CAPE Implies Low Future Returns
- CAPE valuations are far above long-term trend and historically correlate with much lower forward returns.
- High valuation levels increase the odds of a prolonged period of muted or negative real returns.
