The Long Game with Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer America Doesn’t Understand Iran And It Shows (with Danny Citrinowicz)
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Mar 12, 2026 
Danny Citrinowicz, former IDF intelligence officer and top Iran analyst, gives a strategic read on Iran after Khamenei’s death. He assesses nuclear risks, argues U.S. and Israeli aims may be diverging, and maps probable escalation paths from proxies to infrastructure attacks. A tense Red Team/Blue Team debate considers a risky plan to seize enriched uranium in Isfahan.
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Operational Wins But Strategic Failure
- Israel and the U.S. have succeeded operationally in degrading Iranian capabilities but failed strategically to achieve regime change or remove the nuclear threat.
- Danny Citrinowicz warns killing Khamenei removed a restraint (his fatwa) and may push Iran toward pursuing a bomb using 440 kg of ~60% enriched uranium under Esfahan tunnels.
Khamenei's Death Increases Nuclear Risk
- If the war ends now Iran is likelier to pursue a nuclear weapon than before because the political calculus changed after Khamenei's death.
- Citrinowicz says Mujtaba is weaker and controlled by the IRGC, and without Khamenei's fatwa the regime may view a bomb as the "ultimate card."
U.S. And Israel Are Not Aligned Strategically
- Israel and the U.S. have diverging strategic aims: Israel prioritizes neutralizing threats to itself even if it produces chaos in Iran, while the U.S. and Gulf states fear a failed Iranian state.
- Citrinowicz says Netanyahu will press on while Trump allows it; the U.S. worries about refugees and regional instability.