Eye On The Market Supply and The Mam
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Feb 5, 2026 A deep look at why New York City faces one of the tightest housing markets since 1960. Discussion of stagnant rental stock, vacancy metrics, and zoning as the central constraint. Review of the new mayoral $70B housing agenda and its financing limits. Exploration of policy trade offs like tenant-protection effects, zoning reforms, ADUs, and public-private partnerships.
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Documentary Spurs Historic Comparison
- Michael Cembalest recounts watching the documentary Drop Dead City and notes Mayor John Lindsay was omitted despite shaping policies that led to the 1970s fiscal crisis.
- He uses the film as a prompt to compare past mayoral policy impacts with today's housing challenges.
Renovation Economics Are Broken
- Cost-recovery caps mean a $100k renovation can only raise rent by ~$347/month, yielding ~27-year payback.
- Many rent-stabilized units now have negative NOI, prompting owners to warehouse apartments.
High Rents Fuel Overcrowding
- Rising rents and slow supply growth pushed median rent-to-income ratios from ~33% in 1990 to over 50%.
- This creates overcrowding and immobility as households either can't move or stay in under-occupied units with low rents.