Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart Housing Market Now Falling Into A Deflationary Vortex | Reventure Consulting's Nick Gerli
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Oct 12, 2025 Nick Gerli, founder of ReVenture Consulting, shares his data-driven insights on the struggling U.S. housing market. He discusses the significant downturn in the rental market, linked to plummeting work permit applications. Gerli highlights the affordability crisis as both home prices and rents become unaffordable. He warns of a potential bubble as home values outpace incomes, and presents alarming data showing price declines across various states, especially in areas like Houston and Tampa. Practical advice for buyers and sellers in this challenging market is also provided.
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Wealth Effect Can Amplify Short-Term Drops
- A large stock-market correction would hit affluent buyer demand and likely increase listings and price cuts.
- Long-term home prices still follow income and rent, but a market shock could force faster declines.
Inventory Explains Price Divergence By State
- Inventory relative to long-term norms is the single strongest driver of home price growth today.
- States with large inventory surpluses see declines, while shortages keep prices rising in the Northeast and Midwest.
Track Local Inventory Not Just National Numbers
- Monitor local inventory because national totals hide big variation; more inventory must arrive to push national prices notably lower.
- Use micro data to forecast whether your market will face downward pressure in 2026.