The Meb Faber Show - Better Investing Hedgeye’s Keith McCullough on Market Opportunities and Risks | #598
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Sep 26, 2025 
In this discussion, Keith McCullough, Founder and CEO of Hedgeye, reveals his innovative approach to market analysis, notably the 'signal' and 'quad' framework for navigating economic scenarios. He emphasizes the U.S. dollar's pivotal role in global markets and sharing insights on behavioral challenges investors face, including the psychology of letting go of losing positions. McCullough also delves into Hedgeye's new asset management venture and cutting-edge ETF strategies, asserting that understanding market flows is now more important than individual stock picking.
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Fired Into Founding Hedgeye
- McCullough started Hedgeye after being fired in October 2007 and treated the event as an opportunity.
- He built Hedgeye to run his book out loud and used new distribution tools like Twitter and YouTube to scale it.
Dollar Moves Drive Markets
- McCullough views the US dollar's rate-of-change as the single most causal macro factor across asset classes.
- Getting the dollar right often predicts moves in commodities, equities, and Fed policy expectations.
Manage Risk By Watching Signals
- Focus risk management on what's changing: positions that worked can quickly flip when signals and quads turn.
- Trim or exit positions (e.g., Europe, Poland) as their signals and quad counts deteriorate.
