Prof Jiang’s Predictive History (The Story of Civilization, Secret History, Game Theory and more) Game Theory 5: The World Game
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Feb 6, 2026 A fast tour of why marginalized, cohesive groups often outcompete decadent elites. Stories range from Greek city-states and the Aztecs to world cities like Uruk and early empires. Concepts include energy, cohesion, openness, secret societies, elite overproduction, mercenaries, and how losers rebound while victors fade.
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Elite Overproduction Fuels Creative Warring States
- Elite overproduction leads to factional competition and colonization until space runs out, producing a Warring States period of peak creativity.
- Open club competition among colonies accelerates innovation and idea exchange.
Intermarriage Turns Competition Into Equilibrium
- When elites intermarry, warfare shifts from innovation to population control and stabilizing equilibrium.
- The state becomes an empire focused on maintaining hierarchy rather than rewarding merit.
Secret Societies Drive Imperial Decay
- Court factionalism solves secrecy, trust, and coordination via secret societies with hierarchy, transgression, and eschatology.
- Secret societies make factions insular, corrupt, and divided, undermining imperial vitality.