What the Data Reveals about India–US Trade Under 50% Tariffs

In this episode, journalist and author Puja Mehra speaks with trade policy expert Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), about the impact of steep US tariffs on India’s exports and what the latest data reveals about the state of India–US trade negotiations. Drawing on sector-wise export trends, Srivastava explains the puzzling two-step trajectory in India’s exports to the US—a sharp initial fall followed by a partial recovery even as tariffs climbed to 50%—and outlines why this resilience may be driven by temporary adjustments.

He also examines whether India can realistically diversify away from the US market, why such shifts are slow and constrained by India’s export basket, and how global competition—particularly from China—limits alternative options. The conversation also touches on India’s recent spurt of free trade agreements, arguing that they reflect a revival of stalled negotiations rather than a fundamental shift in trade strategy. The discussion highlights why the India–US talks go far beyond a conventional trade agreement, touching on agriculture, domestic policy autonomy, and strategic concerns that India has consistently treated as red lines. Tune in for insights on what the trade data signals about India’s negotiating space, the costs of prolonged uncertainty, and the limits of compromise in a high-stakes economic relationship.

(00:00) Setting the India–US trade context

(00:42) Sharp export decline and partial rebound

(02:44) Why exports revived despite higher tariffs

(03:06) How exporters are sharing tariff losses

(05:33) Why the recovery may not last

(06:44) Is export diversification really happening

(09:27) Why tariffs won’t speed negotiations

(10:12) Trade deal versus strategic demands

(12:34) Employment risks from prolonged tariffs

(13:13) India’s non-negotiable red lines

(14:21) What India can realistically offer

(15:57) Country-specific versus MFN concessions

(16:45) Are India’s FTAs a strategy shift

(18:35) Why FTAs are being fast-tracked

(19:16) Using data to read trade signals

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