Looking Outside Why forecasts fail in the game of predicting the future - forecaster Paul Saffo
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May 20, 2025 
In this insightful discussion, futurist Paul Saffo shares his expertise on scenario planning, emphasizing that we must hold our strong opinions weakly when anticipating the future. He critiques the obsession with accuracy in forecasting and highlights the influence of cultural backgrounds on predictions. Saffo also explores the role of technology and adaptability in society, cautioning against rigid thinking. Lastly, he underscores the importance of storytelling in shaping future narratives, advocating for a balanced view of innovation and intuition.
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Match Scenario Process to Actual Need
- Identify what clients really need rather than what they think they want in scenario exercises.
- Iterative, low-cost scenarios often outperform expensive, elaborate processes that are too late to act on.
Scenarios Capture Unlikely Futures
- Scenario planning's success derives from imagining unlikely futures that later materialize.
- Shell's oil embargo scenario showed how remote possibilities can be crucial for preparedness.
Luck and Effort in Forecasting
- Luck plays a significant role in forecasting and innovation success.
- The harder one works, the luckier they seem to get, blending effort and chance.