This Fourth Turning's Market Crash Risks Are 'Exceptional' | Neil Howe

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Jan 6, 2026

Neil Howe, a demographer and co-author of 'The Fourth Turning,' discusses profound changes in society and markets during the current Fourth Turning. He highlights significant themes like internal conflict and financial crashes, suggesting these could be features rather than bugs. Neil warns of extreme market valuations, emphasizing behavioral forces like FOMO driving market overshoot. He links rising inequality to political pressures and examines the social impacts of technology and AI. Lastly, he offers practical advice for personal preparedness in these uncertain times.

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ANECDOTE

High Sierra Hiking Memory

Neil reminisces about hiking the High Sierra and Ansel Adams' photos of the eastern Sierras.
He uses personal travel memories to connect with Adam Taggart's regional experiences.

INSIGHT

Market Wealth Now Drives The Broader Economy

The stock market now drives portions of the real economy through concentrated wealth at the top.
Howe highlights that top 10% consumption share is unprecedented, creating a K-shaped economy.

INSIGHT

AI Could Disrupt Creator Economies And Web Incentives

AI may transform economies but can erode creators' revenue by summarizing content and reducing click-throughs.
Howe warns AI could 'hoover up' IP and collapse web content incentives, harming creators long-term.

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Today's guest has long predicted that widespread systemic change would occur during the 20-teens and 20-20s -- as America and much of the rest of the world experience a replacement of the old order and the birthpangs of a new one.All of us who have lived through this period and epecially the year 2025 that just ended probably find it hard to argue that massive change -- culturally, politically, geo-strategically and economically -- is indeed now afoot.So how much more of this change still lies ahead?How disruptive will it likely be?And what kind of new system does it look like we'll have on the other side?For perspective, we have the privilege of welcoming back to the program demographer Neil Howe, co-author of the seminal book "The Fourth Turning" and its sequel "The Fourth Turning Is Here".

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