Is "another year of good growth" ahead for the US economy?

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Feb 6, 2026

Mike Feroli, Chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan, gives a concise macro outlook in this conversation. He breaks down labor market momentum, benchmark job-data revisions, and how tech CapEx is shaping demand. He also discusses what would trigger Fed rate cuts and how a new Fed chair could shift policy and balance-sheet strategy.

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INSIGHT

Weather Distorts Claims; Payrolls Still Solid

Jobless claims rose due to bad weather and likely overstate weakness in payrolls.
JOLTS shows openings resumed a decline, but we still expect ~75,000 January jobs and steady 4.4% unemployment.

INSIGHT

Supportive Demand Meets Weak Labor Supply

Stabilizing labor demand plus weak labor supply should keep the labor market firm.
Final demand supported by fiscal policy will help sustain labor demand and tighten conditions.

INSIGHT

2.5% Final Demand Backed By Fiscal And AI

Private domestic final demand runs around 2.5%, driven by fiscal boosts and AI-led CapEx.
Risks remain from policy shifts and trade tensions despite our view of another good year of growth.

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The January jobs report may be delayed, but there are many other factors shaping the path forward for the U.S. economy. Join Lauren Brice from the North America Rates Sales team and chief U.S. economist Mike Feroli as they unpack recent data including job openings and tech earnings, as well as the latest Fed developments. What do the headline numbers suggest about the economic outlook, and how might the nomination of a new Fed chair influence monetary policy?

This episode was recorded on February 6, 2026.

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