GlobalData TS Lombard: Perkins Vs Beamish The AI Doomsday Machine
21 snips
Feb 25, 2026 
Freya Beamish, macro economist who studies demand and tech diffusion, and Dario Perkins, data‑driven macro analyst skeptical on hype, debate AI risks and the economy. They tackle whether AI scenarios imply disaster, how productivity gains can boost demand, the inflationary effects of AI build‑out, tariff rulings and their fiscal impact, and if the global monetary cycle is shifting.
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Early AI Panic Is Two Separate Fears
- Early AI panic mixes two worries: wasted capex and priced-in disruption across sectors.
- Dario Perkins notes capex (~$600bn) may not yet show returns and stock prices reflect investor scepticism rather than realized economic damage.
No Clear Macro Effects From AI Yet
- Current data show negligible macro impact from AI so far: no clear job losses or productivity surge.
- Dario Perkins highlights December model reliability ~85% and no discernible employment or productivity changes yet in US data.
History Favors Labor Augmentation Over Mass Unemployment
- Historical pattern: technology is typically labor augmenting not replacing, raising output and wages.
- Perkins argues 150 years of tech progress show unemployment is untrended and demand expands as productivity rises.