Milk Road Macro Geopolitics Is Now the Macro Driver: Iran, China & the Trades That Matter in 2026 w/ Matt Gertken
Feb 12, 2026
Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical Strategist at BCA Research, breaks down why geopolitics is the dominant macro force in 2026. He covers Iran’s instability and risks around the Strait of Hormuz. He explains how oil shocks could ripple through markets. He outlines China’s centralization, its effect on demand, and the U.S.-China AI-tech competition.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Iran's Instability Raises Energy Risk
- Iran's regime faces deep economic and political strain that raises its risk tolerance.
- A faltering regime could lash out at regional energy infrastructure and raise global risk premia.
Deterrence Holds Until Desperation Hits
- Iran is deterred from closing the Strait of Hormuz while U.S. forces are present.
- But if Tehran feels it has nothing to lose, it may still target regional energy assets despite likely defeat.
Trade Oil With Timeframe Discipline
- Consider short-term exposure to oil if a Middle East supply shock looks likely.
- Remember this trade is fragile unless China's demand recovers sustainably.