In the Money with Amber Kanwar Oil Shock: Eric Nuttall Says the Market is Dangerously Complacent
The oil market just got a historic geopolitical shock — and Eric Nuttall says market complacency is creating a major opportunity in energy stocks.
Geopolitics has jolted the oil market — but according to Eric Nuttall, the real story for investors was already unfolding long before the latest headlines. The Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Partners, joins In the Money with Amber Kanwar for an emergency session to break down the implications of the Iran crisis, why the market may be dangerously complacent about global oil supply, and why he believes energy stocks remain in a multi-year bull market. Eric explains why the widely anticipated oil “super-glut” never materialized, why U.S. shale production may have plateaued, and why long-dated oil reserves could become increasingly valuable in the years ahead. He also discusses why energy stocks have pulled back despite rising geopolitical risks and why patient investors could still see significant upside in the sector.
Before getting to the Mailbag, Amber asks Eric about Strathcona Resources (SCR), a stock he says he bought this week. Eric explains why he’s attracted to the company’s long-life reserves and discounted valuation compared with larger peers like Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ). The purchase comes even after Eric opposed the company’s now failed bid to buy MEG Energy (MEG). He explains why he sees compelling value in Strathcona today and why companies with deep, long-dated reserves could benefit the most if oil prices rise.
In the Mailbag, Eric tackles viewer questions starting with Baytex Energy (BTE), explaining why he doesn’t regret selling it and why the company’s recent rally reflects buybacks and a cleaner balance sheet after exiting the Eagle Ford. He then discusses Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE), where strong economics and improving results have driven a major run in the stock. From there he responds to a question on Logan Energy (LGN), warning that going too far down the market-cap spectrum can leave investors stuck in stocks without enough institutional buying power to drive a rerating. He then shares his thesis on Cenovus Energy (CVE) following its acquisition of MEG Energy (MEG), before turning to natural gas with Birchcliff Energy (BIR) and ARC Resources (ARX), where he explains why he’s currently less enthusiastic about Canadian gas. The Mailbag wraps with a blunt take on Surge Energy (SGY).
In Pro Picks, Eric first reflects briefly on some of his past ideas on the show — including Veren (VRN), MEG Energy (MEG), and NuVista Energy (NVA) — all of which were ultimately taken out, though he says he would rather see the full investment thesis play out than rely on M&A. Today he shares three current high-conviction ideas: Whitecap Resources (WCP), Athabasca Oil (ATH), and Ovintiv (OVV). He explains why Whitecap remains his largest holding thanks to its long inventory runway and discounted valuation, why Athabasca’s deep reserve base could become increasingly strategic in a tightening oil market, and why Ovintiv’s cleaner asset base and aggressive share buybacks could drive a meaningful re-rating if the company attracts more long-term institutional investors.
Timestamps
00:00 Trailer
02:30 Intro
05:00 Iran war implications for oil
06:45 Domestically Trump needs lower energy prices
09:45 Where do oil prices go?
12:20 Why are energy stocks selling off?
15:00 What Eric saw in Saudi Arabia
16:45 Why Eric was already bullish oil
22:00 Why Eric bought Strathcona (SCR) this week
27:00 Eric’s defence of the energy sector on parliament hill
31:00 ITM Mailbag: Baytex stock (BTE)
33:30 Tamarack Valley Energy stock (TVE)
35:00 Logan Energy stock (LGN)
37:50 Cenovus Energy stock (CVE)
39:30 Birchcliff Energy stock (BIR)
42:00 Arc Resources stock (ARX)
44:00 Surge Energy (SGY)
46:00 Eric’s Pro Picks ( WCP, ATH, OVV)
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DISCLAIMERS
The information provided in this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice.The views expressed by the host and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any organization or company. The host and guests may maintain positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any investment decisions. In this episode we discuss Canadian Natural Resources and Tamarack Valley Energy which are both stocks Amber owns.
In the Money delivers expert stock picks, actionable ideas, and timely money management tips. Hosted by business journalist Amber Kanwar, each episode features interviews with top portfolio managers who suggest ways to achieve good returns. Covering everything from ETFs and Canadian stocks to global investing trends, dividend strategies, and risk management, this show is made for DIY investors, stock market enthusiasts, and anyone looking to sharpen their financial strategy.
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