Tangle The declining murder rate.
Feb 11, 2026
A deep dive into a historic nationwide drop in homicides and broader violent crime declines. Data and caveats from a major CCJ report are unpacked. Competing explanations from different political perspectives are laid out. An intriguing angle explores whether more screen time for youth played a role.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Episode Framed As A Flex Topic
- Will Kavak frames the episode as a 'flex topic' exploring the decline in U.S. murder rates with perspectives from across the spectrum. He promises to examine competing theories and offer his take.
Historic National Crime Decline
- The CCJ found murders and violent crimes fell sharply in 2025, with a 21% drop in murder rate across 35 large cities. 11 of 13 tracked violent crime types decreased while drug crimes rose 7% and sexual crimes were unchanged.
Decline Continues Pre‑Pandemic Trend
- The 2025 drop continues a long-term decline interrupted by a pandemic-era spike, suggesting reversion toward pre-COVID trends. Homicides fell 25% since 2019 and residential burglary dropped over 40% in that span.