The Macro Trading Floor How To Trade Macro In A War
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Mar 20, 2026 They unpack correlations converging across asset classes and why oil now dominates macro exposures. They discuss hedging flows, forced selling in metals, and how deleveraging creates downside convexity. They outline a game-theory model for geopolitical escalation and practical trading rules for positioning around de-escalation headlines.
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Unstable Equilibrium Between Oil And Markets
- Markets sit in an unstable equilibrium where oil can be ~$40 higher or lower within a month, creating large directional risk.
- Brent says this creates holding-pattern behavior: central banks and investors wait while oil threatens to spike and disrupt supply chains.
Gold Selling Reveals Real Money Deleveraging
- Precious metals and long-only positions are cracking under margin pressure, signaling real-money de-leveraging.
- Alf highlights gold selling as long investors liquidate hard assets to meet margin calls elsewhere.
Oil Shock Is Initially Inflationary Then Growth-Draining
- An oil shock can be inflationary first then disinflationary later as it becomes a growth shock.
- Brent notes central banks face hard choices: hike into a supply shock (past mistakes in 2008/2011) or wait and risk currency/bond market moves.