Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg How broken is social science? (with Matt Grossman)
Sep 2, 2021
Join Matt Grossmann, Director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research, as he delves into the state of social science. He discusses the difficulties in studying human behavior versus other sciences and the ongoing replication crisis affecting credibility. Grossmann highlights advancements in methodologies and the challenges in political predictions, particularly post-2016 election. The conversation also touches on the importance of diversity in perspectives and the evolving self-reflection within research communities, especially amidst the recent pandemic.
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Predicting Political Events
- Predicting future political events depends on the timeframe and closeness of the race.
- While easily predicting most district outcomes is easy, forecasting close presidential races years in advance remains challenging.
2016 Election Prediction
- The 2016 election, with its numerous influential variables and stochastic factors, exemplifies social science's challenge in predicting single outcomes.
- Despite this difficulty, researchers learn from these events, improving our understanding of polls, public opinion shifts, and the state of democracies.
Descriptive Data's Importance
- Description and measurement often precede causal understanding in research.
- Understanding trends and their prevalence over time, like polarization or economic inequality, generates valuable research questions.
