On Investors’ Minds - APAC Edition VIDEO: What investors are asking - U.S.-Iran conflict
Mar 12, 2026
Marcella Chow, a global market strategist focused on trade routes and energy chokepoints, and Raisah Rasid, a macro strategist tracking geopolitical risks and Asia’s energy exposure, discuss the U.S.-Iran conflict. They cover oil price moves and futures signals. They explain why the Strait of Hormuz matters and Asia’s reserve and supply responses. They review market reactions and portfolio diversification considerations.
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Markets Expect A Short Lived Oil Shock
- The US‑Iran conflict is currently viewed as primarily a geopolitical event with likely disruptions measured in weeks rather than months.
- Futures curve shows June at ~$85 and Dec 2026 at ~$75, implying markets expect a short‑lived impact on oil prices.
Recent Brent Spike Versus 2022 Energy Shock
- Brent spiked ~36% from pre‑conflict levels and briefly neared $120 before easing to about $88 at recording time.
- Comparing to 2022 Russia‑Ukraine shock, sustained >$100 oil for months caused broad sell‑offs, but current futures suggest that outcome isn't the base case.
Three Signposts That Will Shape Conflict Duration
- Three key signposts for duration are munitions (volume of launches/defenses), market reactions, and the US midterm elections.
- US political sensitivity to volatility and November midterms make prolonged conflict less likely in their view.