Multipolarity The Art of War, Closing The Gap, Six Finger Discount
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Mar 19, 2026 A deep look at shifting great-power strategy as China treads carefully around the Iran war while watching US entanglement. Analysis of how US distraction reshapes military balance in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. A rundown of logistics, depleted munitions, and forward-base vulnerabilities. And a dive into viral AI fakery, where fake death rumors and propaganda flood the information space.
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China Intentionally Playing The Long Game
- China has stayed publicly restrained over the Iran war despite heavy strategic incentives to intervene.
- Beijing may prefer to let the U.S. weaken itself then step in, using restraint as a tool to preserve long-term advantage.
Short Pain, Strategic Gain For China
- The Iran conflict helps bind Russia and China while exposing U.S. entanglements, benefiting Beijing strategically.
- Short-term Chinese pain from oil shocks may be offset by access to Russian energy and dominance in green-tech manufacturing.
U.S. Instability Undermines Deterrence
- Chinese planners view current U.S. actions as evidence of American instability and self-destructive policy choices.
- That perception lowers U.S. deterrence credibility and incentivizes Beijing to let America neutralize itself before asserting leadership.