Iran Conflict: How Long, and How Bad?

73 snips

Mar 27, 2026

Guest

Kevin Donegan

Kevin Donegan, retired U.S. Navy vice admiral, explains naval options for escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Dennis Ross, longtime U.S. Middle East advisor, explores mediation, China and Russia’s leverage, and control of the strait. Sanam Vakil of Chatham House analyzes Iran’s regime calculations, sanctions dynamics, and why a quick resolution is unlikely.

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INSIGHT

Iran Treats This War As Regime Survival

Iran views the conflict as existential and is fighting to guarantee regime survival rather than accept a quick defeat.
Sanam Vakil explains Tehran seeks to spread costs widely and obtain guarantees or sanctions relief to deter future attacks.

INSIGHT

Asymmetry Lets Iran Keep Fighting Despite Damage

Iran combines conventional weakness with asymmetric options like low‑cost drones to continue inflicting damage despite military setbacks.
Vakil notes U.S./Israeli strikes degrade systems but Iran's asymmetry prolongs the conflict.

INSIGHT

Strait Of Hormuz Is The Conflict's Strategic Pivot

Control of the Strait of Hormuz is the strategic pivot: as long as Iran can threaten maritime traffic, a decisive U.S. or Israeli victory is politically incomplete.
Dennis Ross says convoys or mediation are needed to remove Iranian leverage over shipping.

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The Iran conflict has triggered the largest energy supply disruption in history with shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz nearly at a standstill and regional energy infrastructure under fire. In this episode, Chatham House’s Sanam Vakil, long-time US Middle East advisor Dennis Ross, and Vice Admiral Kevin Donegan, USN (ret), discuss how long this conflict could last, what’s at stake for the key players, and what it will take to restore global energy flows. This episode explores the latest Top of Mind report.

This episode was recorded on March 16, 17, and 25, 2026.

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