Saxo Market Call Geopolitics getting white hot. Also, can USD tip into uptrend post jobs report?
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Jan 9, 2026 Exploring weak tech amidst strong market breadth, the discussion dives into geopolitical heat, particularly the impact of potential regime changes in Iran. Attention turns to the upcoming US jobs report, raising questions about the US dollar's potential upturn. Meanwhile, tensions in Asia regarding rare earth exports and Taiwan strategy are highlighted, alongside regional risks from Mexico and Venezuela. The episode also addresses earnings forecasts for banks and Delta, monthly equity divergences, and a cautious outlook on defense stocks.
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Use Jobs Report As A Volatility Trigger
- Treat the U.S. jobs report as a key event risk that can revive FX and Treasury volatility.
- Watch for the report to influence dollar momentum and trigger moves in rates and FX markets.
Mortgage Purchases Could Lower Long Rates
- A U.S. plan to buy $200bn of mortgages would push long rates down and lower mortgage costs.
- Hardy notes lower long rates could help but substantial rate cuts are needed to restore housing affordability.
China-Japan Tensions Test Alliances
- Geopolitics are accelerating: China testing ties with Japan on rare-earth export bans while U.S.-China rhetoric shifts.
- Hardy sees these moves as strategic tests with broad supply-chain and alliance implications.