7am Waleed Aly on the shifting political order
Mar 27, 2026
Waleed Aly, columnist, academic and broadcaster known for Australian political commentary. He unpacks the South Australian backlash, One Nation’s surprising surge and how preferences and three‑cornered contests reshaped results. He considers whether this signals a new political order, the limits of the shift and the tests ahead in other states.
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Preferential Voting Makes Safe Seats Fragile
- South Australia's result shows preferential voting can produce surprising outcomes where small shifts upend 'safe' seats.
- Waleed Aly explains three-cornered contests and preference flows let minor parties like One Nation become kingmakers despite lower primary votes.
One Nation Is Picking Up Votes From Both Sides
- One Nation's surge in South Australia is real and translated into votes beyond polls, indicating a meaningful rightward shift in some areas.
- Aly notes the swing to One Nation exceeded the swing away from the Coalition and included voters bleeding from Labor in regional and fringe suburbs.
Left Vote Still Dominant For Now
- Despite the One Nation surge, aggregated left votes (Labor plus Greens) still outnumber the right in South Australia for now.
- Aly cautions that whether this reverses depends on whether Labour voters continue bleeding to One Nation or the shift is a transient protest.