Odd Lots War in Iran is Chewing Through American Missile Stockpiles
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Mar 16, 2026 
Tom Karako, a missile defense expert at CSIS, breaks down the brutal math behind America’s missile shortages. He gets into why cheap drones can drain pricey interceptors fast. They also explore how analysts estimate secret stockpiles, why factories and rocket motors are bottlenecks, and how shortages ripple across Ukraine, the Middle East, and U.S. allies.
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Budget Books Reveal More Than Stockpile Secrecy
- US missile stockpiles are opaque but not unknowable because budget books reveal dollars, rounds, and procurement plans.
- Tom Karako says outsiders can triangulate close estimates even when exact inventories stay classified.
Missiles Became The Default Tool Of War
- Missiles now dominate modern warfare because precision guidance and standoff range let states strike early and often.
- Tom Karako says even Iran and North Korea have these capabilities, while missile defense has become globally accepted after Ukraine and Israel.
Missile Defense Buys Time But Can Run Dry
- Missile defense does not end wars; it buys time, and running out of interceptors could rapidly change a conflict.
- Tom Karako warns US inventories are being cut down while Patriots and THAAD are shifted from Asia to the Middle East.
