Prof G Markets Brutal Quarter Ends With a Rally — But Risks Are Rising
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Apr 1, 2026 
Kevin Gordon, macro strategist at Schwab, and Doug O’Laughlin, president of chip research firm SemiAnalysis, dig into a quarter-end rally that looks fragile. They hit market whiplash, mega-cap distortions, oil shock fears, and why instability matters most. Then the focus shifts to the chip selloff, AI trade panic, Nvidia valuation pressure, and AI risks for Microsoft and Meta.
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Why The Quarter End Rally Looked Weak Underneath
- Kevin Gordon said the quarter-end rally looked fragile because mega-cap tech and communication services drove the index while underlying breadth stayed weak.
- Advancing volume lagged a prior up day, and oil kept rising even as stocks celebrated possible war de-escalation.
Why Higher Oil Hits Consumers Before Corporations
- Kevin Gordon argued the Iran shock matters more through consumers than businesses because gasoline jumps hit household budgets directly.
- He distinguished a spending shock from a labor shock; jobless claims stayed contained, so growth may slow without collapsing.
Why AI Layoffs May Not Break The Labor Market
- Kevin Gordon said AI layoffs in tech look more idiosyncratic than economy-wide because information jobs are only a low-single-digit share of payrolls.
- He is watching whether tech earnings strength comes from margin protection via layoffs rather than real demand growth.