The Warning with Steve Schmidt Weekend Iran War Update: No Deal for Iran with Steve Schmidt, Ken Harbaugh and Malcolm Nance
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Apr 12, 2026 
Malcolm Nance, former Navy cryptologic specialist and intelligence analyst, and Ken Harbaugh, former Navy officer and military commentator. They unpack failed Islamabad talks, naval blockade legality, the risks of Chinese-escorted tankers provoking U.S.-China clashes, mining and minesweeper shortages, and which regional navies might intervene. Short, tense, and focused on the strategic stakes.
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War Reduced To Control Of The Strait Of Hormuz
- The war has narrowed from grand aims to a raw contest over control of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Steve Schmidt says 20% of the world's oil and critical fertilizer flows through the strait, making blockade control globally consequential.
Blockade Equals Act Of War And Strategic Humiliation
- A blockade is effectively an act of war and flips U.S. historic role from guarantor of navigation to enforcer of closure.
- Ken Harbaugh warns this risks direct confrontation with near-peer navies and strategic humiliation for the U.S.
Pilot Intercepts And The EP-3 Incident
- Ken recounts multiple intercepts by Chinese fighters where U.S. pilots held course under international law.
- He references the 2001 EP-3 incident and training cards pilots used to read to challengers to assert freedom of navigation.