The Globalist Will the war in Iran push Europe into stagflation? Plus: Art Basel Hong Kong
Mar 27, 2026
Andrew Muller, witty news satirist; Alexei Korilov, Central Europe reporter; Yossi Mecklenburg, Middle East analyst; Ash Badwaj, aviation expert; Karsten Brzezki, European macro economist. They discuss how the Iran war could spike energy and food prices, ripple through European growth and fiscal choices, and force airlines to reroute, cut capacity and rethink connections. Art Basel in Hong Kong and cultural stories round out the conversation.
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Oil Price Rule Of Thumb For GDP Impact
- A $10 permanent oil price rise typically knocks about 0.1 percentage points off GDP growth.
- With oil roughly $40 higher year-to-date, Karsten estimates roughly a 0.4 percentage point hit to growth across Europe.
Gulf Hub Collapse Rewires Global Connections
- Gulf hub disruptions have cascaded worldwide, forcing reroutes and raising prices as major carriers cut capacity dramatically.
- Ash Badwaj cites Emirates down 40%, Qatar down 62% and Etihad down 50%, squeezing connections for Australasia and beyond.
Pivot To Point To Point Flights And Alternative Hubs
- Airlines and passengers should expect more point-to-point long-haul flights and alternative hubs like Istanbul or Finnair north routes.
- Ash Badwaj highlights BA reopening direct routes such as Colombo and carriers exploiting freed aircraft capacity for new routes.
