Capitalmind with Deepak & Shray Will the U.S. Market Crash in 2026?
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Nov 11, 2025 Deepak Shenoy, founder of Capitalmind and a seasoned investor, reflects on his market predictions over 17 years, including notable successes like forecasting the 2008 crash. He discusses why crashes often arise when cash sits on the sidelines and parallels between today’s AI hype and the 2000 dot-com bubble. Shenoy explores the challenge of predicting real estate and gold markets, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of crowd behavior. His insights on interest rate cycles reveal why predicting them may be easy, yet profiting from them is a different story altogether.
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Sideline Cash Fuels Bubbles, It Doesn't Save You
- Cash on the sidelines is often a feature of bubbles, not a protection.
- Sideline cash tends to buy at the wrong time and may exacerbate crashes.
Real Estate Declines Are Local, Not Secular
- India real estate is highly local and resistant to secular crashes.
- Under-construction projects with leverage are the real vulnerability, not finished owner-occupied homes.
Rates Are Predictable, Profits Aren't
- Interest rate cycles are predictable because they track inflation and run multi-year phases.
- Predicting the move is easier than profiting from it in bond markets.