The Prospect Podcast The Iran war: it’s not over
Mar 11, 2026
Renad Mansour, senior research fellow at Chatham House with expertise on Iran and regional armed groups. He argues the conflict is far from over. He explains why the US cannot simply declare victory. He outlines Iran’s long-war mentality and the signals from Supreme Leader succession. He examines local groups’ incentives and the fragmented logic of proxy networks.
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Military Victory Won't End The Conflict
- The war is nowhere near an end because goalposts shift and contradictions exist within US and Israeli aims.
- Renad Mansour warns military 'victories' are easier than post-war rebuilding, and regional violence will persist beyond any declared success.
Iran Is Preparing For A Long Existential War
- Iran views this as a long, existential war and is preparing for protracted conflict rather than a cycle of attack-negotiation-attack.
- Mansour compares the mentality to the eight-year Iran-Iraq war and says the regime is digging in.
New Supreme Leader Points To A Harderline Lineup
- The new supreme leader's appointment signals a shift toward a younger, more conservative IRGC-dominated leadership that may use violence more radically.
- Mansour suggests the ceremonial, messaging attacks are giving way to harderline tactics under successors like Mojtaba Khamenei.