Bloor Street Capital | Jimmy Connor Growing and Protecting My Wealth What's Next For Oil and the Financial Markets | Rory Johnston and Jimmy Connor
Mar 13, 2026
Rory Johnston, independent oil market researcher behind Commodity Context, breaks down looming risks in global oil flows and market volatility. He explains why Strait of Hormuz disruptions could spark severe fuel shortages, how tanker backlogs and diesel tightness amplify shocks, and who stands to gain or lose geopolitically. Short, urgent, and full of must-know market scenarios.
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Tanker Backlogs Create A Massive Oil Air Pocket
- A backlog of ~250 laden and ~250 empty tankers on each side can take weeks to normalize and months for markets to settle.
- That pileup already created an oil 'air pocket' roughly a quarter billion barrels in size, lifting spot risk well above fundamentals.
Diesel And Jet Fuel Will Bite Harder Than Gasoline
- Middle distillates (diesel, jet) are the tightest refined-product markets and will drive economic pain faster than crude.
- Rory cites diesel crack spreads jumping from ~$40 to $50–$60, effectively making diesel cost-equivalent to $150–$160 crude.
Lock In Transport Contracts Before Surcharges Hit
- Expect surcharges and rising consumer prices across transport and logistics; lock in fares and shipments where possible.
- Rory warns emerging markets will face outright physical shortages as they can't afford marginal international prices.