Bloomberg Surveillance Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Stephen Auth & Dean Curnutt
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Dec 17, 2025 In this engaging discussion, Steve Auth reveals his optimistic two-year targets for the S&P 500 and shares insights on nominal GDP. Dean Curnutt explains the intriguing historical negative correlation between the S&P and VIX and how stock price increases can lead to rising implied volatility. He also delves into the mechanics of options leverage, recommending a strategy focused on hedging rather than speculation. The conversation is rich with investment strategies and market analysis for enthusiasts.
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Bullish Two‑Year Market Outlook
- Stephen Oth (Federated Hermes) expects strong nominal GDP and earnings growth driven by AI and productivity over the next two years.
- He projects the S&P two-year target at 8,600 and next year at 7,800, citing potential stimulus upside.
AI Drives Earnings And GDP Surprise
- Stephen Oth says earnings and nominal GDP growth will be lifted by an AI-driven productivity surge.
- He expects GDP next year around 3%, above consensus, which supports equity gains.
Stocks Behave Like Options
- Dean Curnutt links derivative dynamics to observable market behaviors, especially option-implied volatility moving with single stocks.
- He highlights that stocks act like options, so rising prices can raise implied volatility for individual names.