NatSec Matters Chaos & Control in Iran: Amb. Jeffrey Feltman
Mar 10, 2026
Jeffrey Feltman, former UN Under-Secretary-General and Brookings fellow, offers a sharp read on Iran's leadership shift and regional risks. He unpacks Mojtaba Khamenei's sudden rise and regime cohesion. He outlines Israeli targeting, nuclear risks tied to HEU, and the potential for wider regional escalation.
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Mojtaba's Rise Fueled By His Father's Death
- Mojtaba Khamenei's succession increased because of the manner of Ali Khamenei's death, making a hereditary-like transfer politically plausible.
- Jeffrey Feltman notes Mojtaba is a hardliner with IRGC background and symbolic legitimacy bolstered by the assassination context.
Regime Cohesion Persists Despite Popular Anger
- Iran's regime retains internal cohesion despite mass protests and targeted assassinations, limiting signs of defections.
- Feltman emphasizes loyalists occupy positions across clerical, judicial, and security institutions, enabling institutional resilience.
Airstrikes Won't Easily Spark Mass Protests
- Targeted strikes on IRGC facilities and police aim to undermine repression, but civilian fear and neighborhood militias reduce chances of mass protests.
- Feltman cites the January crackdown and near-total collapse of peer-to-peer messaging as deterrents.