HousingWire Daily MBA’s Marina Walsh on the housing market outlook
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Feb 20, 2026 Marina Walsh, VP of industry analysis at the Mortgage Bankers Association, offers a data-driven look at the housing market outlook. She covers rising originations and a K-shaped recovery. She breaks down delinquencies across FHA, VA and serious workouts, foreclosures rising but not yet a crisis, recapture opportunities from the trigger lead ban, and AI’s benefits and guardrails in servicing.
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K-Shaped Market And Rising Originations
- Originations should rise about 8% to $2.2 trillion, signaling modest recovery in lending activity.
- The market is K-shaped: high-income borrowers fare well while others face stress and uneven outcomes.
Personal View On Tough Job Market For Grads
- Marina shared a personal story about her college senior working two jobs while job hunting during school.
- The story illustrated the tough labor market for recent graduates and its broader housing implications.
FHA Delinquencies Near Long-Term Highs
- FHA delinquencies are nearing levels last seen in 2011–2012 and the gap with conventional is almost 900 basis points.
- Causes include end of COVID protocols, timing of origination (2020–21 buyers), and concentrated borrower vulnerability.