All Things Policy Technology Denial Regimes and the Limits of Containment
Mar 2, 2026
Arindam Goswami, a policy researcher on tech-statecraft and export controls, joins to discuss technology denial regimes. He traces lessons from nuclear, space, and supercomputing controls. Topics include how blockades spur domestic catch-up, choke points like SWIFT and ASML, standards battles, talent mobility, and why AI’s software diffusion complicates containment.
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Denial Regimes Are Reactive And Often Fail
- Denial regimes are usually reactive not anticipatory and often begin only after a surprise technological use of civilian imports.
- After India's 1974 test the Nuclear Suppliers Group forced India to build an entire domestic fuel cycle, making denial costly but ultimately ineffective.
Denial Can Spur Disruptive Innovation
- Constraints can drive innovative, lower-cost alternatives rather than direct replication of denied tech.
- ISRO, denied propulsion tech under MTCR, built competitive low-cost satellite launch capabilities instead.
Toshiba-Kongsberg Shows Enforcement Failure Is Expensive
- A small Toshiba-Kongsberg sale to the USSR in the 1980s showed enforcement failure can have massive strategic costs.
- $17 million in machines forced the US to consider $30 billion in countermeasures, a ~2000:1 enforcement penalty.