At Any Rate European Rate Markets: Eurobonds, by-elections and the spring statement
Feb 27, 2026
Aditya Chordia, a J.P. Morgan fixed-income analyst focused on euro-area and UK rate markets. He breaks down recent Euro Council talks on joint EU issuance and defence funding. He outlines near-term EU issuance prospects and a constructive long‑end outlook. He assesses German 10-year yield dynamics and discusses UK by-election impacts and timing risks for UK political moves.
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Eurobond Plans Won't Bulge EU Funding Soon
- Eurobond talk likely raises EU issuance over the medium term but has low near-term funding impact.
- Aditya Chordia notes approvals and disbursements take time, so any meaningful joint issuance is a late-2027-or-beyond story.
More EU Issuance Could Be A Structural Positive
- Additional EU issuance later is positive because aggregate EU issuance is set to fall sharply after NGU and the Ukraine loan facility end.
- Chordia highlights the 2027 drop from NGU ending and the 90bn Ukraine loan winding down by 2027.
Neutral View On 10-Year German Bunds Near 2.70
- J.P. Morgan remains constructive on long-end EU paper with 10–30s curve among the steepest in euro-area space.
- Chordia sees 10-year German bunds around 2.70% as a neutral target and is fading excessive money-market-driven flattening.